This week the we have seen the release of the latest quarterly supply figures for the period July – September 2017 which provide the market with the last information before the year end. These figures not only provide evidence of the previous quarters activity but also give an indication as to how the year will end.

The stand out figure reported was in Plastic where the supply has recovered to the point where an excess of 20,000 tonnes was created this quarter against demand. This has resulted in a sizeable reduction in the evidence note costs although there are some concerns that the value may have fallen too low to maintain the level of supply in Q4. Even if this were the case it would appear that the problems may roll into 2018 as December tonnage which is traditionally pushed forward becomes harder to source.

All other materials reported supply in level with demand with Paper recovering some ground on its Q2 position. Steel has almost made its demand target with just 4% supply required in the final quarter. The excess volume from this market will subsequently be directed towards the general recycling demand thereby easing some pressure on the Paper supply which has traditionally filled general recycling obligations. Glass, Aluminium, Wood & Recovery have all reported strong figures and prices have remained stable in light of this.

Looking forward to 2018, all markets are due to see some increase in the recovery percentages although as mentioned previously Wood is the one with most concern attached. Wood demand is due to grow by 70% next year and although the current figures show that we will meet the target the loss of this material from the general recycling pot may result in prices lifting in the other lower value materials.

 

   -Ian Andrews

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